Time Goes By…

Very excited that the holidays are upon us. Thanksgiving in Albuquerque with Pat, Mollie, maybe Bjorn, Caitlin, Olive, Bear, Brady, Jon and Ruth. Kiara may have to work and Kylie does have to work so staying in SoCal for the holiday. I have been tasked with stuffing, carrots and I delgated Sonia’s salad to Mollie. We have to bring the blow up bed if we don’t want to sleep on the floor. Should be a party! We will have Christmas at home (although we may go out for Chinese food for Christmas dinner!) and maybe New Years at Catalina.  Photo below – Mom and Dad Hagar’s; Georgetown, SC Christmas 1991.

DH_91_0119_a

Working on boat. Trying to waterproof the deck as best we can until replacement next spring. We recaulked a couple of sections that really needed it. We have many more areas and we wil probably work on it again this weekend, weather permitting. The teak is shrinking, particulalry around the hatches. To compound the problem, the caulk remains high so it creates little pooling areas on the teak which in turn makes the teak shrink more as it dries. We are in a catch-22 with it. I think that we may end up replacing a significant amount of the core on the deck because it has rotted out. Will be checking that as we remove the teak. It’s a boat!

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Time Goes By…

My mama always said, dyin’ was a part of life. I sure wish it wasn’t. Forrest Gump

Me too Forrest — me too.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on My mama always said, dyin’ was a part of life. I sure wish it wasn’t. Forrest Gump

The Joys of Life

What a great day! Three early morning calls with three daughters and everybody was happy. The youngest, Kiara, was struggling to find her dog sitting clients leashes, but in the end she had a solution. Looking forward to Thanksgiving. Sad that Kylie, Chad and Jax will be staying home. Such are the trials and tribulations of being young (particularly in SoCal) and having to work.

I still read the news every morning. However, I have learned to not let it bother me anywhere near as much as it used to. Now, I just take the attitude of “Wow, gotta love my parents for giving me the opportunity to not be a moron!”

Just under 51 months until I feel like I have the option to retire (have to get Joni involved in these decisions). While it seems like a long time, over the last several years, I have finally gained the ability to see that 51 months is not a long time.DSCN1153Not sure what retirement looks like yet. I still say that I will probably continue to do some contract work if I can find it. Just don’t want to HAVE to WORK 40 hours per week. Thinking that maybe just the thought that I could do nothing if I really wanted to is a good retirement.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on The Joys of Life

The Long Road Home

I am an unabashed Robert Service fan. I blame one of my college roommates for that. When the kids were young, I would have them lay in the crook of my knee at bedtime and read things like “The Cremation of Sam McGee” and the “The Shooting of Dan McGrew to them. Probably should have stuck with Dr. Seuss!

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on The Long Road Home

Retireing to the West Coast – Tsunamis and Seismicity (sort of)

West coast geologic hazards are more numerous than east coast since on top of the threat of tsunami’s from the Pacific Ring, we have local earthquakes, landslides, liquefaction other seismic related hazards to deal with.

But all of that aside – tsunamis. We have experienced 2 tsunamis since we have lived in San Clemente, California (22 years); the first from the 2010 Chilean magnitude 8.8; the second from the 2011 magnitude 8.9 Japanese earthquake. Both tsunamis were small in Dana Point, California harbor (<1.5m) but interesting. Since 1812, there have been 14 observed tsunamis along the west coast impacting California. The most destructive tsunami in recent recorded US history hit Crescent City, California in 1964, the result of the magnitude 9.2 Alaska Good Friday earthquake. Twelve people died in that event.

During that approximate same period (1840-2014) there have been 6 tsunamis on the east coast of the United States with the most likely source being earthquakes along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone (although not always).

For west coasters, the two biggest tsunami threats are from Alaska earthquakes and from  a quake along the Cascadia subduction zone. A magnitude 9.1 quake in Alaska would create larger waves in Northern California — between 10 and 23 feet — but the damage could be greater in Southern California because the region has more coastal development and fewer coastal cliffs. A 3-10 foot tsunami would inundate parts of Long Beach (ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach), Huntington Beach and Harbor and Newport Beach as well as traveling back up coastal rivers.

The difference in east coast and west coast tsunamis is topography and tsunami height. The east coast is a relatively low-lying flat coastal plain (at least south of Connecticut) and the west coast is frequently cliff bounded getting lower in southern California (Orange County and San Diego County). Therefore, west coast damage from tsunamis is predictably more focused in harbors, and coastal river planes. On the east coast, the tsunami threat is less focused and inundation would tend to spread through low lying areas. Moreover, east coast earthquake generated tsunamis tend to be smaller with lower overall earthquake magnitudes than along the Pacific Rim.

However, the east coast has potential for tsunamis from at least two other sources; submarine landslides along the continental shelf and landslides from the Canary Island volcanoes, most notably the Cumbre Vieja volcano.

So where does that leave us? Risk analyses for exposure to any geologic hazard is complex for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that the time element of when the next event will occur is not well defined. However, in looking at it solely from historical data, it seems to me that the west coast is more prone to geologic hazards such as earthquakes and tsunamis than the east cost. Damage on the west coast is more likely to be from an actual earthquake event occurring more or less locally and damage on the east coast from a mega-tsunami type of event occurring some distance from the impacted area. West coast damage will be more localized (San Francisco will not be seismically impacted by a LA earthquake). East coast damage will be more wide spread resulting from a mega-tsunami.

My thought is that to minimize damage from geologic hazards on both the west and east coast, buy inland, on bedrock above 300 feet above mean sea level, not below a cliff and at least 50 feet above a stream or river. -LOL.

 

Posted in Geology | Comments Off on Retireing to the West Coast – Tsunamis and Seismicity (sort of)

Obamacare

Does anybody really know what Obamacare is except for the consultants working to make some money on it? I have read several summaries although it is hard to find impartial information. It is a little premature to judge if it is good or bad without an understanding of it. Understanding regular health insurance is enough of a struggle.

I think that the entire health care system is screwed up. $12,000 for an MRI that costs $650 elsewhere in the world is somewhat bothersome. Eleven years ago when my Mom and Dad where both hospitalized, the bills came in at almost $400,000. I shudder to think what they would be know.

This is certainly not a case for if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. Just not sure how to fix it.

 

Posted in Politics | Leave a comment

Retireing to the East Coast

The Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canary Islands has received a lot of attention as a potential mega-tsunami generator. The premise is that it is a steep sided, active volcanic island with identified zones of weakness running approximately north-south that if she blows may result in a large, fast moving landslide failure on the southwest side of the island. This is termed a flank collapse. Early work suggested that this flank collapse could cause a tsunami event that would reach the southeast US about 8-11 hours after the failure. Along the Carolina and Florida coast with a complete rapid detachment of the landslide, initial modeling suggested 25-30 m of water will come ashore. (http://www.geo.arizona.edu/~andyf/LaPalma/doomsday.html)

With time, additional analyses and additional capabilities, these numbers have changed significantly. In the most recent studies (Harris, Grilli et.al. 2013) the times are shorter and the water height smaller. We are now at 6.9 hours and about 3.25 meters in Florida.

Cumbre Vieja has erupted several times in the recent past, in 1585, 1646, 1677, 1712, 1949 and 1971. The magma source for this volcano is deep and there has been only relatively minor seismic activity on the island. The next eruptions may tell the tale. If they are relatively low energy eruptions through existing vents, the opportunity for a flank collapse is low but the opportunity for gathering more information is high. If the next event is significant, keep the boats handy if you are a US East Coaster.

Posted in Geology | Leave a comment

Americas Cup 34

So in the end, Larry Ellison had more money than the Islands of New Zealand. Not to take away from the tenacity, ability and courage of the crew, but in the end, the faster boat won. The engineering and technology (and money) that Oracle Team US brought to the table were just too much for the NZ team. Whatever changes Oracle made on the lay day made the upwind speed of Oracle 17 insurmountable. In the upwind legs, it was not strategy that won, but boat speed. Granted, Oracle figured out (probably through engineering simulation) that if you foiled lower upwind you gained a bit of speed.

It would be nice in the next AC if at least half of the American crew happened to be Americans. Get the kids on the water!

Posted in Sailing | Leave a comment

Geologic Extinctions

For anybody that remembers the old blog, you may remember that I had gone down the path of geologic extinctions. In the Phanerozoic (last 542 million years) there have been 5 great extinctions and many minor extinctions. We use the Phanerozoic because that is the period that we have fossil records for.

  • 450 million years ago (mya) 85% of the marine life went south.
  • 374 mya 70-80% of the marine species became extinct.
  • 251 mya was the greatest mass extinction in earths history where 90% of all species and up to 99% of all animals are thought to have disappeared.
  • 200 mya most of the ammonites, half the genera of bivalves, many brachiopods and gastropods, 20% of foraminifera families, 80% of quadrupeds, and all conodonts became extinct. Since conodonts are extinct you probably aren’t familiar with them. They were the earliest vertebrate (backbone) animal having survived for 250 my until BANG — gone. The looked a bit like eels.
  • Of course, 65 mya the dinosaurs and 2/3 of all other species with a cumulative loss of about 80% of all life on earth bit the big one with a comet or asteroid taking the blame in current thinking.

Lots of ideas on what happened to cause these extinctions.

  • massive volcanism (eruption of flood basalts) and consequent alteration in atmosphere/ocean chemistry
  • impact of meteorites
  • variations in sea level
  • significant glaciation
  • release of methane or carbon dioxide due to melting of gas hydrates
  • changes in the large scale circulation of ocean water as the shape/continuity of ocean basins change due to plate motion
  • radiation from a nearby supernova

Keep in mind that while these extinctions happened relatively rapidly, relatively rapidly in geologic time is measured in 10’s of millions of years. Homo-Sapiens (us) have only been on earth about 200,000 years. So man may have appeared and may disappear in a period of time less than a great extinction took to complete.

Posted in Geology | Leave a comment

New Blog

After a Chinese hack of the old website, trying a new, more secure, option. Did not replace any of the old stuff as it was old.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment